FINAL WEEKEND PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
Every matchup will have playoff or co-owner implications. A key
matchup in tiebreaker scenarios is Cha v. Tim.
The scenarios were too complicated to write out every single
possibility in this document, however, you can find the spreadsheet that has
every single possible scenario, as well as which tiebreaker rule determines
each spot here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xzqS9D36CPYQ7-Kq9WAVUxbzTkcEoYmdYkzyJzOOG3s/edit?usp=sharing
*The scenarios that contain asteriks are based on current PF
tiebreaking. They could have different outcomes based on final team PF order
that is different than it is now.
Playoffs (percentages are based on number of scenarios, the
likelihood of scenarios is not factored in):
Team – Playoff Chance | Seeding Range
Co-Owners - 100% | 1–4
Cha – 100% | 1-3
Justin – 100% | 1–3
Jason – 99% | 3-OUT
Tim – 98% | 4–OUT
Taylor – 63% | 4–OUT
Andrew – 21% | 5–OUT
Mitch – 18% | 5–OUT
Jess – >1% 6–OUT
Nothing to play for
Dave
CoOwner?
Drew – 75% safe
Eric – 25% safe
Tiebreaker review
The precedence of tiebreakers is:
- Head to head
- Total Points
If more than 2 teams are tied, the tiebreakers are used to
determine the winner of that group. If one of the teams has beaten all of the
other teams, they win by virtue of (round-robin) head to head. If no team has
defeated all of the other teams, then the team with the most total points is
the winner.
Once a winner in a group has been decided, a new group is formed
with the remaining teams and the tiebreakers start over. For example:
A four-way tie for 4th place:
Team A - 6-6 / 13,400 (Wins - C; Loss – B, D)
Team B – 6-6 / 11,100 (Wins – A, C, D; Losses - none)
Team C – 6-6 / 13,500 (Wins – none; Losses – A, B, D)
Team D – 6-6 / 10,000 (Wins – A, C; Losses – B)
The outcome would be:
4th Place: Team B – round robin head to head; A, C & D now
tied for 5th
5th Place: Team C – total points; A & D now tied for 6th
6th Place: Team D – Head to head win over Team A
7th Place: Team A
In
the Playoffs
Elkins and Mike - 8-3 | 13,038.8 - Win and get a Bye
Possible finish
Highest - 1st
Lowest - 4th
Relevant Head to Head tiebreakers:
Wins - Cha (+1404)
Losses - Justin (+1082.8), Tim (+2219), Jason (2351.4)
Justin - 8-3 | 11949 - Already in Playoffs
Possible finish
Highest - 1st
Lowest - 3rd
Relevant Head to Head tiebreakers:
Wins - Co-Owners (-1090)
Losses - Cha (+314.2), Tim (+1129.2), Jason (+1261.6)
Cha - 8-3 | 11634.8 - Win and Get a Bye
Possible finish
Highest - 1st
Lowest - 3rd
Relevant Head to Head tiebreakers:
Wins - Justin (-314.2), Tim (+1129.2)
Losses - Co-Owners (-1404), Jason (+974.4)
Tim - 7-4 | 10819.8 - Win and In (But also most likely gets in
with a loss)
Possible finish
Highest - 4th
Lowest - Out*
Relevant Head to Head tiebreakers:
Wins - Co-Owners (-2219), Justin (-1129.2), Jason (+132.4),
Taylor (-1157.8), Mitch (-426)
Losses - Cha (-815), Andrew (+401.2)
*The scenarios where Tim misses the playoffs: Tim Loses AND
Jason Wins AND Taylor Wins AND Andrew Wins AND Mitch Wins AND Tim
does not outscore Mitch by 426.1 (#25)
Jason Loses AND Taylor Wins AND Andrew Wins AND Mitch Loses AND
Jason outscores Tim by 132.5 (#37)
Jason - 7-4 | 10687.4 - Win and In (But also most likely gets in
with a loss)
Possible finish
Highest - 3rd
Lowest - Out*
Relevant Head to Head tiebreakers:
Wins - Andrew (+268.8), Cha (-947.4), Co-Owners (-2351.4)
Losses - Justin (-1261.6), Taylor (-1290.2), Tim (-132.4)
The scenarios where Jason misses the playoffs: Jason Loses
AND
Tim Loses AND Taylor Wins AND Andrew Wins AND Mitch Wins AND Jason
does not outscore Tim by 132.5 (#33)
A
Chance for the playoffs
Taylor - 6-5 | 11977.6 - Win and In, Lose and still has lots of
scenarios
Possible finish
Highest - 4th
Lowest - Out
Relevant Head to Head tiebreakers:
Wins - Jason (+1290.2), Andrew (+1559)
Losses - Tim (+1157.8), Mitch (+731.8)
Andrew - 6-5 | 10418.6 - Win and In, Lose and still has some
scenarios
Possible finish
Highest - 5th
Lowest - Out
Relevant Head to Head tiebreakers:
Wins - Tim (-401.2), Mitch (-827.2)
Losses - Jason (-268.8), Taylor (-1559)
Mitch - 6-5 | 11245.8 - Win and In, Lose and still has a few
scenarios
Possible finish
Highest - 5th
Lowest - Out
Relevant Head to Head tiebreakers:
Wins - Andrew (+827.2)
Losses - Tim (+426) Jason (-+558.4), Taylor (-731.8)
Jesse - 5-6 | 10637.6 - Has 1 Hail Mary scenario
Possible finish
Highest - 6th
Lowest - Out
Relevant Head to Head tiebreakers:
Wins - Andrew (+219)
Losses - Taylor (-1340), Mitch (-608.2)
Jesse’s Hail Mary:
Jesse Win AND Taylor Lose AND Mitch Lose AND Jesse Outscore Taylor
by 1,340.1 AND Outscore Mitch by 608.3
No
Playofffs
Dave - 3-8 | 8981.8 - Nothing to play for
The Battle for Co-owner
Drew - 1-10 | 10145.2
Eric - 1-10 | 7767.2
Drew Beat Eric 1043.6 to 838.6 in week 5 so he has the tiebreaker
if they finish with the same record.
For Eric to avoid being co-owner he has to beat the Co-owners AND
Drew has to lose to Taylor.