Playoff Time!
We're going into the last week of the season with 11 of the 12 teams playing for something meaningful, and all 6 matchups having an impact on the playoff and co-owner races. With 5 teams playing for the final 2 spots, and none of them playing each other in the final week, there are 32 possible outcomes for 5th and 6th. We also have 16 possible outcomes for the top 4 places, where the only thing that's certain is that Andrew will get a 1st round bye.
Summary:
Playoffs:
Team – Playoff Chance | Seeding Range
Andrew - 100% | 1 – 2
Jason – 100% | 2 – 4
Dave – 100% | 1 – 4
Boners – 100% | 2 – 4
Drew – 69% | 5 – OUT
Cha – 50% | 5 – OUT
Tim – 34% | 5 – OUT
Justin – 22% | 5 – OUT
Taylor – 22% 6 – OUT
Fuccbois
Mike - 100% a fuccboi
CoOwner?
Eric – 75% safe
Elkins – 25% safe
Tiebreaker
review
The precedence of tiebreakers is:
-
Head to head
-
Total Points
If
more than 2 teams are tied, the tiebreakers are used to determine the winner of
that group. If one of the teams has beaten all of the other teams, they win by
virtue of (round-robin) head to head. If no team has defeated all of the other
teams, then the team with the most total points is the winner.
Once
a winner in a group has been decided, a new group is formed with the remaining
teams and the tiebreakers start over. For example:
A
four-way tie for 4th place:
Team
A - 6-6 / 13,400 (Wins - C; Loss – B, D)
Team
B – 6-6 / 11,100 (Wins – A, C, D; Losses - none)
Team
C – 6-6 / 13,500 (Wins – none; Losses – A, B, D)
Team
D – 6-6 / 10,000 (Wins – A, C; Losses – B)
The
outcome would be:
4th
Place: Team B – round robin head to head; A, C & D now tied for 5th
5th
Place: Team C – total points; A & D now tied for 6th
6th
Place: Team D – Head to head win over Team A
7th
Place: Team A
The Top 4:
Andrew – 9-2 |
14,460
– Andrew controls his own destiny. A win this week gives him the regular season
championship. Also, a win by Jason wraps up the championship for Andrew
regardless of his own outcome.
Relevant
Head to Head tie breakers:
Wins
– Jason (+1905.2)
Losses
– Dave (+1269.2
Scenarios
(playing Tim this week):
Win
(10-2)
Regular
Season Champ
Lose
(9-3)
Dave
Wins & Jason Wins – Regular Season
Champ
Dave
Wins & Jason Loses - #2 Seed
Range: #1 -
#2
Jason – 8-3 |
12,554.8
– Andrew holds both the head to head and total points tiebreaker over me, so I
cannot win the title, but I control my own destiny for a first round bye due to
a week 2 win over Dave.
Relevant
Head to Head tie breakers:
Wins
– Dave (-636)
Losses
– Andrew (-1905.2), Boners (-42)
Scenarios
(playing Cha this week):
Win
(9-3)
In
#2
Lose
(8-4)
Dave
Win AND Boners Loss– In #3
Dave
Win AND Boners Win – In #4
Dave
Loss AND Boners Loss – In #2
Dave
Loss AND Boners Win – Total Points tiebreaker (In #2-#4)
Range #2 - #4
Dave – 8-3 | 13,190.8
– Dave
can still win the Championship because of his week 7 win over Andrew, and holds
a 600+ point differential over Jason and the Boners (worst band name) so
barring disaster he should finish no lower than 3rd.
Relevant
Head to Head Tie Breakers:
Wins
– Andrew (-1269.2), Boners (+594)
Losses
– Jason (+636)
Scenarios
(Playing Mike this week)
Win
(9-3)
Jason
& Andrew Lose – Regular Season Champ
Jason
& Andrew Win - In #3
Jason
Win & Andrew Lose – In #3
Lose
(8-4)
Jason
Loss AND Boners Win – Total Points tiebreaker (In #2-#4)
Otherwise
- In #3
Range #1 - #4
Boners – 7-4 |
12,596.8 –
Boners can climb their way all the way up to a first round bye, but it’s gonna
take a huge day on their part combined with a Dave meltdown to do it.
Relevant
Head to Head Tie Breakers:
Wins
– Jason (+42), Drew (+880.6)
Losses
– Dave (-594)
Scenarios
(playing Justin this week)
Win
(8-4)
Jason
Lose & Dave Win – In #3
Jason
Lose & Dave Lose – Total Points tiebreaker (In #2-#4)
Otherwise
– In #4
Lose
(7-5)
In
#4
Range #2-#5
Drew – 6-5 |
11,716.2 – Drew
is the last potential playoff participant that controls his own destiny, but he
also could be in danger of missing if he doesn’t win, due to only beating one
of the other four teams capable of finishing 6-6 combined with having the 2nd
lowest point total of the group.
Relevant
Head to Head Tie Breakers:
Wins
– Taylor (-288)
Losses
– Cha (-1325.4), Tim (-837.4), Justin (+316.8)
Scenarios
(playing Eric this week)
Win
(7-5)
In
#5 (16/16 scenarios)
Lose
(6-6)
Place –
Outcomes (out of 16)
5th
– 1
6th
– 5
OUT
– 10
Playoffs –
69% (22/32)
Range - #5 -
OUT
Cha – 5-6 | 13,041.4 – Cha has an
almost 500-point lead over the 2nd highest score in the group of 5
and more than 1,000 over the 3rd highest, so that gives him a huge
advantage in any tiebreaker that comes down to total points. A win by Cha gives
him an 88% chance to make the playoffs. A win by Cha and a loss by Drew and Cha
will guarantee himself a spot. If he loses he Drew’s result doesn’t matter, and
he needs the other 3 teams to all lose also.
Relevant
Head to Head Tiebreakers:
Wins
– Tim (+488), Drew (+1325.4), Justin (+1642.2)
Losses
– Taylor (1037.4)
Scenarios
(playing Jason this week)
Win
(6-6)
Drew
Loss - In #5
Drew
Win (6/8 scenarios) In - #6
Drew
Win (2/8 scenarios) - OUT
Lose
(5-7)
Drew
Win OR Loss & Tim Loss & Taylor Loss & Justin Loss & Cha keep
high score – #6
Drew
Win OR Loss & Win by ANY of the other 3 (7/8 scenarios)- OUT
Possible
Finishes
Place
– Outcomes (out of 32)
5th
– 8
6th
– 8
OUT
- 16
Playoffs –
50% (16/32)
Range - #5 -
OUT
Tim – 5-6 | 12,553.6
– Is
out of the playoffs with a loss OR a win by Drew AND Cha, which leaves him with
a 34% chance to make it.
Relevant
Head to Head Tiebreakers:
Wins
– Drew (+837.4)
Losses
– Cha (-488), Taylor (+549.8)
Tie
- Justin (+1154.2)
Scenarios
(playing Andrew this week)
Win
(6-6)
Drew
AND Cha Loss – 4/8 scenarios – In #5, 4/8 scenarios - OUT
Drew
Loss AND Cha Win – 4/8 scenarios – In #6, 4/8 scenarios - OUT
Drew
Win AND Cha Loss – 3/8 scenarios – In #6, 5/8 scenarios – OUT
Drew
AND Cha Win – 8/8 scenarios – OUT
Lose
(5-7)
OUT
Playoffs –
34% (11/32)
Range - #5 –
OUT
Justin – 5-6 |
11,399.4 – Will
be out with a loss. However, wins over the Garvin brothers give him an almost
50% chance of making it if he wins, despite having the lowest point total of
the group.
Relevant
Head to Head Tiebreakers:
Wins
– Taylor (-604.8), Drew (-316.8)
Losses
– Cha (-1642.2)
Tie
- Tim (-1154.2)
Scenarios
(playing Co-Boners this week)
Win
(6-6)
All
4 other teams lose – In #5
Drew
AND Tim AND Taylor Lose – In #6
Drew
AND Cha Lose – In #6
Drew
Win AND Cha Lose AND Tim Lose – In #6
Loss
( 5-7)
OUT
Playoffs –
22% (7/32)
Range - #5 -
OUT
Taylor – 5-6
| 12,004.2 – Because he lost to Drew, he can’t finish any higher than 6th
but a wins over Cha and Tim give him an edge if Drew wins this week.
Relevant
Head to Head Tiebreakers:
Wins
– Cha (-1037.4), Tim (549.4)
Losses
– Drew (+288), Justin (604.8)
Scenarios
(playing Elkins this week)
Win
(6-6)
Cha
Win AND Drew Loss AND Tim Loss – In #6 (2 scenarios)
All
4 other teams lose – In #6 (1 scenario)
Drew
Win AND Justin Lose – In #6 (4 scenarios)
Loss
(5-7)
OUT
Playoffs –
22% (7/32)
Range - #6 -
OUT
Irrelevant
Mike – 4-7 |
10,527.8 – Mike
Sucks
The Battle to Avoid auto co-owner:
Eric – 2-9 |
11,105.4
– Eric controls his own destiny when it comes to avoiding a last-place finish
and automatic co-ownership due to a week 6 win over Elkins.
Relevant
head to head matchups:
Wins
– Ryan (+1075.4)
Losses
- None
Win
(3-9):
Safe
from automatic co-ownership
Loss
(2-10):
Ryan
Loss – Safe from automatic co-ownership
Ryan
Win – Co-Owner
Ryan – 2-9 |
10,027
Relevant
head to head matchups:
Wins
– None
Losses
– Eric(-1075.4)
Win
(3-9):
Eric
Win – Co-owner
Eric
Lose – Safe
Lose
(2-10):
Co-Owner
Top
4 Tiebreaker Scenarios:
Head
to Head Win/Loss Matrix
TEAM
|
|||||
Andrew
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
Boners
|
||
OPPONENT
|
Andrew
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
|
Jason
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
||
Dave
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
||
Boners
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
||
* Head to
Head results are recorded in the vertical columns
Total
Points Standings (through Week 11)
Total pts
|
Pts Behind leader
|
Pts Behind Player Ahead
|
|
Dave
|
13190.8
|
0
|
|
Boners
|
12596.8
|
594
|
594
|
Jason
|
12554.8
|
636
|
42
|
The Scenarios:
Determined by
Head to Head and record
2nd
|
3rd
|
Notes
|
||||||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
H2H, 3: R
|
||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
H2H, 3: H2H
|
||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
R, 3: H2H
|
||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
R, 3: R
|
||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Dave
|
Boner
|
2:
R, 3: H2H
|
||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Dave
|
Jason
|
2:
R, 3: R
|
||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
H2H, 3: R
|
||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
H2H, 3: R
|
1:
Andrew, Pts; 2: Jason, H2H
|
|
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
H2H, 3: R
|
1:
Andrew, Pts; 2: Jason, H2H
|
|
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
R, 3: H2H
|
||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
R, 3: H2H
|
||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Andrew
|
Boner
|
2:
H2H, 3: H2H
|
1:
Dave
|
|
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Andrew
|
Boner
|
2:
H2H, 3: H2H
|
1:
Dave
|
|
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Jason
|
Dave
|
2:
H2H, 3: R
|
Three way tie
at 8-4
2nd
decided by Total Points, 3rd decided by Head to Head
2nd
|
3rd
|
Notes
|
|||||
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Dave
|
Boner
|
2:
Pts, 3: H2H
|
|
A
|
J
|
D
|
B
|
Dave
|
Boner
|
2:
Pts, 3: H2H
|
Dave
Currently has leads of 594 (Boners) & 636 (Jason)
If Jason wins
points – 2: Jason (Pts); 3: Dave (H2H)
If Boners win
points – 2: Boners (Pts); 3: Jason (H2H)
“The
5-way” Tiebreaker for 5th Scenarios:
Going
into the last week of the regular season we have 5 teams that could finish at
6-6, and 2 spots for them to fight for. None of the 5 teams are playing each
other, so no one will be able to knock out an opponent directly. Drew is the
only team at 6-5, so he’s the only one of the group in control of his own
playoff destiny. For Drew it’s simple….. Win and he’s in.
Head
to Head Win/Loss Matrix
TEAM
|
||||||
Cha
|
Tim
|
Taylor
|
Drew
|
Justin
|
||
OPPONENT
|
Cha
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
|
Tim
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L/W
|
||
Taylor
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
||
Drew
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
||
Justin
|
W
|
W/L
|
L
|
L
|
||
* Head to
Head results are recorded in the vertical columns
Total
Points Standings (through Week 11)
Total pts
|
Pts Behind leader
|
Pts Behind Player Ahead
|
|
Cha
|
13041.6
|
0
|
|
Tim
|
12553.6
|
488
|
488
|
Taylor
|
12004.2
|
1037.4
|
549.4
|
Drew
|
11716.2
|
1325.4
|
288
|
Justin
|
11399.4
|
1642.2
|
316.8
|
The Scenarios
Head to Head
5th
|
6th
|
Notes
|
||||||
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Cha
|
Tim
|
5:
H2H, 6: H2H
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Cha
|
Tim
|
5:
H2H, 6: H2H
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Cha
|
Justin
|
5:
H2H, 6: H2H
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Cha
|
Drew
|
5:
H2H, 6: R
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Tim
|
Drew
|
5:
H2H, 6: R
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Justin
|
Drew
|
5:
H2H, 6: H2H
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Taylor
|
5:
H2H, 6: R
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Justin
|
Drew
|
5:
H2H, 6: R
|
Total Points
5th
|
6th
|
Notes
|
||||||
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Cha
|
Tim
|
5:
Pts, 6: Pts
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Cha
|
Tim
|
5:
Pts, 6: Pts
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Cha
|
Taylor
|
5:
Pts, 6: Pts
|
|
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Cha
|
5:
R, 6: Pts
|
Total Points
for 5th, Head to Head for 6th
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Cha
|
Taylor
|
5:
Pts, 6: H2H
|
If Drew can
outscore Cha by 1,325.5 it would be 5: Drew, 6: Taylor
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Tim
|
Justin
|
5:
Pts, 6: H2H
|
If anyone in
the group can outscore Tim, then they will win the group and Tim will get 6th
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Tim
|
Drew
|
5:
Pts, 6: H2H
|
If Taylor
outscores Tim by 549.5 - 5: Tay, 6: Tim
If Drew
outscores Tim by 837.5 - 5: Drew, 6: Tay
D
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Tim
|
Justin
|
5:
Pts, 6: H2H
|
“The
4-way” Tiebreaker for 6th Scenarios:
If
Drew wins he is the 5th seed, and all tiebreaker scenarios are for
the 6th seed
Head
to Head outcomes:
5th
|
6th
|
Notes
|
|||||
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Taylor
|
6:
Head to Head (C, D)
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Cha
|
6:
Head to Head (T, J)
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Cha
|
6:
Head to Head (T)
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Taylor
|
6:
Head to Head (C)
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Cha
|
6:
Head to Head (J)
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Cha
|
6:
Record
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Taylor
|
6:
Record
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Tim
|
6:
Head to Head (J)
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Tim
|
6:
Record
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Justin
|
6:
Head to Head (T)
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Taylor
|
6:
Record
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Justin
|
6:
Record
|
Total Point outcomes:
5th
|
6th
|
Notes
|
|||||
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Cha
|
6:
Total points
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Cha
|
6:
Total points
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Tim
|
6:
Total points
|
|
C
|
Ti
|
Ta
|
J
|
Drew
|
Cha
|
6:
Total points
|