A guest post by Jesse
Week 9 PR will serve as a prediction of the final four games
of the season as well as a prediction on play off seed. I wanted to remove jersey bias of players
that seem to be great but are really mediocre, or condemn a player as a once-every-few-weeks
guy that I don’t trust. I also wanted to look at things as how the owner puts a
team together. In doing so I crunched a
few numbers from league scoring, along with reviewing some of the data mitch
has collected all season, and for many seasons for that matter. I wanted to use the numbers to help guide my
predictions, but I did not want to bog down the article with redundancy, so
I’ll give a scope of what I considered here to give everyone an idea of what my
thoughts were.
I looked at record, expected record, points for, points
against to predict “luck.” I also
calculated best starting lineup player averages to see who would win what match
up going forward. While doing so, it showed
there were 3 tiers or buckets, of teams averages that I think were fitting. Four teams best lineup averages were over 1,100 points (Dave,
Justin, Eric and Jesse.) Four teams
averages were below this 1,100 mark but above 1,000 (Andrew, Mike, Jason,
Taylor.) Then there were four teams that were below 1,000 (Tim, Cha, Ryan/Drew,
Mitch.) Telling pools of talent became
evident, but how lucky would their next four games be and where would they
finish? I’ve ranked the league according
to Play Off Seed and have included my predicted end of season record.
So without further ado here is your regularly scheduled,
insult riddled, haphazard power rankings.
Enjoy.
12. Mitch 2-10: Mitch has struggled to put a team together
that can sustain any respectable level of scoring, but this is not without
trying! An avid day trader, Mitch is always looking for the best deals, however
it seems he is more of the gambler and house money is drying up. Could be the next vegas shooter. LOOK OUT
MAN! Looks like mitch will lose out and
our next champ may have to look for HIS co-owner, rather than stick him with
some other poor shlub. Odds on favorite
to be co-owner is Mitch.
11. Ryan/Drew 4-8: Team Ryan and Drew were only ever
supposed to not finish last. Taking on
the mantra of Taylor allows a few things here to our co-owners. Have you ever looked across the bow and
wondered what so and so would look on your roster? But perhaps in past years you’ve been on the
fence and stayed away? Ever wanted to
click accept on that risky trade offer?
Ever wanted to test a new draft strategy? Ever wanted to say fuck it and take a few
weeks off? Co-ownership is a great time to try out new strategies! These guys came out with the hot start they
needed to avoid last place and in the meantime, were able to dilly dally in new
things. I think they both come out stronger
next year. LOOK OUT MAN!
10. Taylor 4-8: Taylor has EASILY had the most unlucky
schedule so far. But he has also been a
position player or two away from having a serviceable roster in winnable match
ups. It looks at this point that he has
managed to assemble a formidable week in and week out roster. Unfortunately for him, it may be too late for
a playoff push. On the bright side, I
see Tay finishing out 3-1 and avoiding co-ownership. Tay is also a really great guy and mostly
only gives Jason a lot of shit, which we all enjoy, on top of giving it his
all, so I’d be shocked if he is named co-owner.
9. Cha 5-7: Cha has benefited from one of the luckiest
schedules so far this year. However, his
current roster boasts the lowest Best Lineup Average score of any team in the
league. Looking at his last four games
it is conceivable he pulls together 1 MAYBBEEE 2 wins, though he licks butt
holes so probably not. If he did however
manage to catch a break and find himself in yet another low scoring garbage bowl,
his low scoring output will likely cost him in any potential 6-6 shake
outs. As for potential co-ownership,
it’s tough to say. The man who once
offered himself as champion to peasantry, quickly showed his true colors and
flipped. Had he taken on co-ownership
voluntarily I believe he would be spared by any potential champ. But he didn’t.
8. Tim 6-6: Tim’s team kicks off the quagmire of the
eventual 6-6 mess. Tim has out preformed
his scoring output with an extra win over expected, but heads into somewhat
stout, final four games. These of course
could go either way, but Tim’s lack of 1,000+ average will show and in a tie
break of .500’s I think his points for will hold him out of the playoff. Tim is also pretty cool, so he is not likely
to be co-owner, unless it goes to a random hat lottery or something.
7. Andrew 6-6: My crystal ball sees Andrew as the last out
of the play off bracket. He has an extra
win over expected and though he has struggled to score consistently and feels
that his team is awful, he has the horses to split his last four games. This could be the team to catch a break or
break a leg. Keep an eye on Andrew! Andrew can also be unpredictable so never
count out a bag of candy or maybe a bag of dog’s shit in the mail to the future
champ. He could potentially spite his
way into co-ownership just as easily as he could talk his way out of it.
To quote the titans great GM and Nashville local sports
radio personality Floyd Reese, “GET ME TO THE PLAYOFFS BABY!” Now for the teams I believe will make the
playoffs.
6. Mike 6-6: Mike’s team has been inconsistent at times, but
he has enough big game potential guys to keep W’s coming. Mike has achieved his
expected wins thus far and my numbers see more of the same to come. Mike will look to bounce back and forth
between winning and losing for the next four games and at the end of the
season, he looks to have enough points for to make the cut. He is not likely to disrupt any greater
outcome once he gets there, but can hang his hat on the signed life-sized
cardboard cutout of Andy Dalton that he keeps in his bedroom.
5. Jason 6-6: Jason’s team has been pretty evenly matched
all year with a narrow points for and against margin, and has achieved his
expected wins. He will go into his final
four games with a best lineup average in the middle bucket and the schedule to
match. He like mike will likely have the
points for push to secure a spot in the playoffs. What kind of trades will happen between now
and then could jettison him to championship asperations or leave us all with a
2,000 word groupme post of “Why did I just do that!?”
4. Jesse 7-5: My team has continued to score consistently
and maintain regular high outputs, while falling to a few evenly matched teams has
held me at .500 thus far. It looks grim
this week in a massive bye week bench matchup against a strong Dave team. Going forward if averages hold up I should be
able to pull off an above average record.
By chance I do split the last four, it seems I’ll have the points for to
advance out of the murky 6-6 pool. Once
I get to the playoffs, it looks like I’ll have to get some luck from the other
side to hold up the belt, but top 2 scoring gives me a chance to make it
interesting past week 12. And I’m writing this so I’m not going to waste time
trying to burn myself up. So I guess
I’ll use a line to say Justin and Cha touch soft dick tips together and pull
the foreskin hood over the other weiner to make it look like Siamese twins, at
the dick.
3. Eric 8-4: Shocking I know, Eric has overachieved by one
expected win and goes into a final four games that could easily result in a
split. However the numbers seem to
indicate he can keep the wins rolling in!
As one of the teams to crack through 1,100 best lineup pool he looks to
play spoiler week after week until the tourney starts. What will he do once he gets there??? Well it
will depend on his match ups, but it appears he could make it down to playing
for a chance to get pissed about not winning the belt. It feels a little bit like telling people the
bengals are going to the super bowl, but I mean, the numbers man, or something,
maaannn…
2.Dave 9-3: Dave’s team is top four in scoring, and has over
achieved by one expected win as he goes into a depleted Boogi team match up
this week. Dave charges into his final
four looking to sweep, but alas a challenge awaits... I predict Taylor will be victor in their week
11 matchup, causing dave to shake in his boots leading up to the playoffs. Look for a last push trade to make him feel
like he’s taken the steps to separate his team from the pack. Dave’s gonna be fully torqued going into the
playoff. However his scoring isn’t consistently high enough to roll through.
Look for a week 2 playoffs melt down rant, a la “I Fucking Hate Matt
Ryan.” This could get ugly folks.
And that’s it guys!
Hope you enjoyed the week 9 power rankings and playoff predictor. I tried to have some fun with it but also
take a shot at seeing if I could get it right.
I’ll be checking back at week 12 to see how wrong, or right, I was.
Thanks again guys!
1. Justin 9-3: Justin not only has the most points
for, he has been unlucky by a game and still chomping at the bit to take over
top spot! He has a well-rounded team
that can score consistently with a wide group of guys that can get it done when
others are not at their best. He has
guys that can take over a game and go bonkers with points. He has the highest average for best lineup
going forward and has the friendliest final four games going forward of all 12
teams. What can you say, if Justin had a
water cooler to stand around Monday – Friday, he’d have the team that other
guys would go back to their leagues and talk about. He’s the most dangerous match up going
forward. Good job buddy.