Playoff Projections - Thanks Jason!


If the current ESPN Projections stand the playoff seeding will be:
1. Tim
2. Ryan
3. Cha
4. Mitch
5. Eric
6. Drew


Tim (12635) – Tim controls his own destiny for the #1 overall seed and a first round bye. The only other team that can finish with 9 wins is Elkins and Tim Gave Elkins his first loss of the season in week 9 and owns the tiebreaker

Relevant Head to Head tie breakers
Wins – Taylor (-1620) and Elkins (-414.4)
Loses – Drew (-1292.2)

Scenarios (playing Elder this week):
Win (9-3)
#1 overall seed
Lose (8-4)
Elkins wins (9-3) - #2 seed
Drew wins (8-4), Taylor loses (7-5), Elkins (8-4) - #2 seed
Drew wins (8-4), Taylor wins (8-4), Elkins, 8-4) - #1 seed

Relevant Head to Head tie breakers
Wins – Taylor (-1620) and Elkins (-414.4)
Loses – Drew (-1292.2)

Playoff likelihood – 100%
Bye likelihood – 100%
Range #1 - #2

Elkins (12220.6) -  Still has a shot at the overall #1 seed, but needs Tim to lose to make it happen. Things start to get interesting if Elkins loses his fourth straight game this week.

Relevant Head to head tie breakers
Wins – no one
Loses – Tim (+414.4), Taylor (-1206.4), Drew (-877.8)

Scenarios (playing Drew this week):
Win (9-3)
Tim Loses (8-4): #1 overall
Tim wins (9-3): #2 seed

Loses (8-4):
Taylor Wins: #2 seed
Taylor loses: #3 seed
Taylor wins (8-4), Drew (8-4), Tim wins (9-3): #2 seed
Taylor wins (8-4), Drew (8-4), Tim loses (8-4): #2 seed
Tim wins (9-3), Taylor (7-5) loses, Drew (8-4): #3 seed
Tim loses (8-4), Taylor (7-5) loses, Drew (8-4): #3 seed

Playoffs – 100%
Bye – 50%

Drew (11342.8) –

Relevant Head to Head
Wins – Tim (-1292.2), Taylor (1-1 wins on points; +328.6), Elkins (-877.8)
Loses – Eric (-48.2), Mitch (-103), Cha (-970.4)

Scenarios (playing Elkins this week):
Win (8-4)
Taylor Wins: #3 seed (unless beats Elkins by 877.9
Taylor wins (8-4), Elkins (8-4), Tim wins (9-3): #3 seed
Taylor wins (8-4), Elkins (8-4), Tim loses (8-4): #3 seed
Tim wins (9-3), Taylor (7-5) loses, Elkins (8-4): #2 seed
Tim loses (8-4), Taylor (7-5) loses, Elkins (8-4): #1 seed
Tim loses (8-4), Taylor wins(8-4), Elkins (8-4)

Loses (7-5)
Taylor Wins (8-4), Cha loses (6-6), Mitch wins (7-5), Eric wins (7-5): In #6
3- way tie at 7-5: 4. Mitch, 5. Eric, 6. Drew
Taylor Wins (8-4), Cha loses (6-6), Mitch wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6): In #5
Taylor Wins (8-4), Cha loses (6-6), Mitch loses (6-6), Eric wins (7-5): In #5
Taylor Loses (7-5), Cha wins (7-5), Mitch wins (7-5), Eric wins (7-5): In #6
5-way tie at 7-5: 3. Cha, 4. Mitch, 5. Eric, 6. Drew, 7. Taylor
Taylor Loses (7-5), Cha wins (7-5), Mitch wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6): In #5
Taylor Loses (7-5), Cha wins (7-5), Mitch loses (6-6), Eric wins (7-5): In #5

Playoffs – 100%
Bye – 50%
Range - #1-#6

Taylor (11014.2)

Relevant Head to head
Wins – Eric (-376.8), Elkins (-1206.4)
Loses – Tim (-1620.8), Drew (-328.6), Mitch (-431.6), Cha (-1299)

Scenarios (playing Cha this week):
Win (8-4)
Drew Wins: #4
Drew Loses: #3
Drew wins (8-4), Elkins (8-4), Tim wins (9-3): #4 seed
Drew wins (8-4), Elkins (8-4), Tim loses (8-4): #4 seed
Tim wins (9-3), Drew (7-5) loses, Elkins (9-3): #3 seed
Tim loses (8-4), Drew (7-5) loses, Elkins (9-3): #3 seed

Loses (7-5)
Drew Loses (7-5), Cha wins (7-5), Mitch wins (7-5), Eric wins (7-5): Out
5-way tie at 7-5: 3. Cha, 4. Mitch, 5. Eric, 6. Drew, 7. Taylor
Drew Loses (7-5), Cha wins (7-5), Mitch wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6): In #6
Drew Loses (7-5), Cha wins (7-5), Mitch loses (6-6), Eric wins (7-5): In #6

Playoffs – 90%
Bye – 0%
Range - #2 – Out

Cha (12313.2) –

Relevant Head to Head
Wins – Mitch (+867.4), Justin (+607.8), Drew (+970.4)
Loses – Elder (+996.6), Eric (+922.2)

Scenarios (playing Taylor this week)
Win (7-5) #3
Taylor Loses (7-5), Drew loses (7-5), Mitch wins (7-5), Eric wins (7-5): In #3
5-way tie at 7-5: 3. Cha, 4. Mitch, 5. Eric, 6. Drew, 7. Taylor
Taylor Loses (7-5), Drew loses (7-5), Mitch wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6): In #3
Taylor Loses (7-5), Drew loses (7-5), Mitch loses (6-6), Eric wins (7-5): In #3
Taylor Loses (7-5), Drew loses (7-5), Mitch loses (6-6), Eric loses (6-6): In #3
Taylor Loses (7-5), Drew wins (8-4), Mitch wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6): In #4
Taylor Loses (7-5), Drew wins (8-4), Mitch loses (6-6), Eric wins (7-5): In #4
Taylor Loses (7-5), Drew wins (8-4), Mitch loses (6-6), Eric loses (6-6): In #4


Loses (6-6) (Tim, Elkins, Tay, Drew all 7-5 or better)
Mitch wins (7-5), Eric wins (7-5), Elder wins (6-6): out
Mitch wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6), Elder wins (6-6): out
3-way tie between Eric, Elder and Cha, Elder wins b/c they beat both Eric and Cha
Mitch wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6), Elder loses (5-7): In #5
Mitch wins (7-5), Eric wins (7-5), Elder loses (5-7): in #5
Mitch loses (6-6), Eric loses (6-6), Elder wins (6-6), Justin wins (6-6): In #5
5-way tie at 6-6 decided by total points for: Cha wins
Mitch loses (6-6), Eric wins (7-5), elder wins (6-6), Justin wins (6-6): In #6


Playoffs – 75%
Bye – 0%
Range - #3 – Out

Mitch (11445.8)

Relevant Head to head
Wins – Elder (+129.2), Drew (+103), Taylor (+431.6), Eric (+54.8)
Loses – Cha (-867.4), Justin (-259.6)

Scenarios (playing Justin this week)
Win (7-5) (Tim, Elkins in)
Cha wins (7-5), Eric wins (7-5), Taylor loses, (7-5), Drew loses (7-5): #4
5-way tie at 7-5: 3. Cha, 4. Mitch, 5. Eric, 6. Drew, 7. Taylor
Cha wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6), Taylor loses, (7-5), Drew loses (7-5): #4
Cha loses (6-6), Eric loses (6-6), Taylor loses, (7-5), Drew loses (7-5):#3
Cha loses (6-6), Eric wins (6-6), Taylor loses, (7-5), Drew loses (7-5): #3

Loses (6-6) (Tim, Elkins, Taylor, Drew all 7-5 or better)
Cha wins (7-5), Eric wins (7-5), Elder wins (6-6), Justin wins (6-6): out
Cha wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6), Elder wins (6-6), Justin wins (6-6): out
Cha loses (6-6), Eric wins (7-5), Elder wins (6-6), Justin wins (6-6): out
Cha wins (7-5), Eric wins (7-5), Elder loses (5-7), Justin wins (6-6): out
Cha wins (7-5), Eric loses (6-6), Elder loses (5-7), Justin wins (6-6): out
Cha loses (6-6), Eric wins (7-5), Elder loses (5-7), Justin wins (6-6): out
Cha loses (6-6), Eric loses (6-6), Elder loses (5-7), Justin wins (6-6): out
Cha loses (6-6), Eric loses (6-6), Elder wins (6-6), Justin wins (6-6): out
5-way tie at 6-6 Cha wins, Justin, Mitch, Eric, Elder

Playoffs – 50%
Bye – 0%
Range - #3 - out

Eric (11391)

Relevant Head to Head
Wins – Drew (+48.2), Justin (-314.4), Cha (-922.2)
Loses – Taylor (+376.8), Mitch (-54.8), Elder (+74.4)

Scenarios (playing Jesse this week)
Win (7-5 tim, Elkins in)
Cha wins (7-5), Mitch wins (7-5), Taylor loses (7-5), Drew loses (7-5): #5
5-way tie at 7-5: 3. Cha, 4. Mitch, 5. Eric, 6. Drew, 7. Taylor
Cha wins (7-5), Mitch loses (6-6), Taylor loses (7-5), Drew loses (7-5): #4
Cha wins (7-5), Mitch loses (6-6), Taylor loses (7-5), Drew wins (8-4): #6

Loses (6-6 Tim, Elkins, Taylor, Drew all 7-5 or better)
Cha wins (7-5), Mitch loses (6-6), Elder wins (6-6), Justin wins (6-6): out unless beat mitch by 54.9 and Justin by 314.5
Cha wins (7-5), Mitch loses (6-6), Elder loses (5-7), Justin wins (6-6): out unless beat mitch by 54.9 and Justin by 314.5
Cha loses (6-6), Mitch loses (6-6), Elder loses (5-7), Justin wins (6-6): out unless beat mitch by 54.9 and Justin by 314.5 (or cha by 922.3)
Cha wins (7-5), Mitch wins (7-5), Elder wins (6-6), Justin loses (5-7): out
Cha loses (6-6), Mitch wins (7-5), Elder wins (6-6), Justin loses (5-7): out unless beats Cha by 922.3 and doesn’t lose to Elder by more than 74.4
Cha wins (7-5), Mitch wins (7-5), Elder loses (5-7), Justin loses (5-7): out
Cha loses (6-6), Mitch wins (7-5), Elder loses (5-7), Justin loses (5-7): in #6

Playoffs – 55%
Bye – 0%
Range - #4 to out

Justin (11705.4)

Relevant head to head
Wins – Elder (+388.8), Mitch (+259.6)
Lose – Cha (-607.8), Eric (+314.4)

Scenario (playing Mitch this week)
Win (6-6 Tim, Elkins, Tay, Drew all 7-5 or better)
Cha win (7-5), Eric win (7-5) Mitch lose (6-6), Elder win (6-6): out
Cha win (7-5), Eric win (7-5) Mitch lose (6-6), Elder lose (5-7): out
Cha win (7-5), Eric lose (6-6) Mitch lose (6-6), Elder win (6-6): In #6 if keep points lead over Eric and Elder
Cha win (7-5), Eric lose (6-6) Mitch lose (6-6), Elder lose (5-7): In #6 unless Eric beats him by 314.5
Cha lose (6-6), Eric win (7-5) Mitch lose (6-6), Elder win (6-6): out
Cha lose (6-6), Eric win (7-5) Mitch lose (6-6), Elder lose (5-7): out
Cha lose (6-6), Eric lose (6-6) Mitch lose (6-6), Elder win (6-6): In #6 if keep points lead over Eric and Elder
Cha lose (6-6), Eric lose (6-6) Mitch lose (6-6), Elder lose (5-7): In #6 unless Eric beats him by 314.5

Lose (5-7): out

Playoffs – 10% chance
Bye – 0%
Range - #6 - out

Elder (11316.6)

Relevant head to head
Wins – Cha (-996.6), Eric (-74.4)
Loses – Mitch (-129.2), Justin (-388.8)

Win (Tim, Elkins, Tay, Drew all 7-5 or better)
Cha win (7-5), Eric win (7-5), Mitch lose (6-6), Justin win (6-6): out
Cha win (7-5), Eric lose (6-6), Mitch lose (6-6), Justin win (6-6): out unless beat Justin by 388.9, Mitch by 129.3 and Eric by 74.5
Cha lose (6-6), Eric win (7-5), Mitch lose (6-6), Justin win (6-6): out unless beat Cha by 996.7, Justin by 388.9, Mitch by 129.3
Cha lose (6-6), Eric lose (6-6), Mitch lose (6-6), Justin win (6-6): out unless beat 3 out of 4 of Cha by 996.7, Justin by 388.9, Mitch by 129.3 and Eric by 74.5
Cha lose (6-6), Eric lose (6-6), Mitch win (7-5): in #6

Lose: out

Playoffs – 2%
Bye – 0%
Range - #6 - out

Dave
Win – 10th place
Lose – 11th place

Jason
Win – 10th place
Lose – 11th place

Jess

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